Pex Pickin

I recognize how anecdotal this observation is but I can't help but get the feeling that we've reached the mid-term peak in oil prices. The Wall Street Journal reported today that Americans have cut 40 billion miles(yes, with a B) from their driving as compared with a year ago. Even assuming that the average American vehicle gets 20 mpg (which I think is hopelessly high), it means that we've shaved 2 billion gallons of gas consumption from the demand side of the equation. That equates to roughly 100 million barrels of oil or only 5 days worth of US oil consumption, but it is also not entirely clear that Americans will not continue to modify their use of high energy transportaion.

Just as rising prices cause suppliers to hoard, falling prices cause producers to oversupply the market. This coupled with the billions of gallons of alternative fuel infrastructure coming online in the next 24-36 months and I think you are looking at sub-$3.00 gasoline in 2009.

Market inertia is a very hard thing to fight, but $4.00 per gallon gasoline has finally made the American consumer more energy aware and once the American consumer changes course, it's very hard to get them to change back.

Things to watch: Canadian/Venezuelan Oil Sands. 1.3 million barrels of oil per day from Canadian Oil Sand fields now and growing - roughly 10% American consumption. Contrary to the petro-chicken littles fear of depleting oil reserves, Canadian crude reserves are over 170 Billion barrels. Experts believe that Canada will triple production of oil from these fields in the next decade.

Half Full or Half Fool

Too much popular media can be bad for your health.

Reading the newspaper, watching the news or listening to the talk show drones and you would think that the nation, western civilization -- nay the planet is on the verge of imminent destruction.

Global warming has been added to war, pestilence, famine as the things we should fear most.

This generation is not as well off as the previous we are constantly reminded.

Bringing children into this sad world is, if not criminal, certainly ill advised.

With the incessant drum beat of Malthusian pessimism it is easy to miss the good, the hopeful and the promising.

This weekend in Wise County Virginia thousands of the working poor who find themselves without dental care will trek to the fairgrounds and receive extensive and professional dental care provided free by hundreds of volunteer dental practitioners.

The Virginia Dental Association has sponsored MOMs (Missions of Mercy) projects across the region for years helping tens of thousands of people without asking for any government assistance of any kind.

Dentists, hygienists, assistants and laypeople volunteer their time and resources to provide care to the underserved - many traveling 8 hours each way.

A reporter could witness this event and write about the sorry state of health care in America that would force thousands of people to go without care or write about the generous outpouring of care by the dental community in response to a void that needs to be filled.

Human deprivation or human imitation of the divine? Turns out that we have that choice of lenses through which we can view the world each day.

I've put away my pair of "see the world through the eyes of the popular media" lenses for good.